EVOLUTION OF UKRAINIAN–POLISH RELATIONS, PERIODIZATION OF COOPERATION AND STRUCTURAL ASYMMETRY OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF EUROPEAN INTEGRATION

Abstract

This article offers a comprehensive examination of the evolution of Ukraine–Poland relations through the prism of long-term socio-economic transformations and shifts in the geopolitical environment. The study proposes a four-stage periodization of bilateral cooperation, each phase reflecting distinct patterns of political interaction, economic interdependence and institutional adaptation. Beginning with the establishment of diplomatic relations in 1991 and extending to the unprecedented strategic partnership formed after 2022, the research traces how external shocks, internal reforms and changes in European integration dynamics shaped the trajectory of mutual engagement. A core component of the analysis is a comparative assessment of GDP trends and demographic developments in Ukraine and Poland between 2004 and 2024. This timeframe is methodologically significant, as it captures Poland’s accession to the EU and the divergence in economic resilience that emerged thereafter. The findings reveal sharp contrasts in economic performance: Ukraine’s GDP demonstrates high volatility, with deep contractions during the 2009 financial crisis, the 2014–2015 geopolitical shocks and the full-scale invasion in 2022. By contrast, Poland maintains a stable growth trajectory, supported by EU structural funds, strong institutional frameworks and diversified markets. Demographic trends reinforce this asymmetry: Ukraine faces accelerated depopulation driven by natural decline, migration and war-related displacement, whereas Poland experiences more moderate demographic shifts and compensates labor shortages through immigration, particularly from Ukraine. The study shows that despite widening structural disparities, bilateral relations have intensified, especially in the domains of logistics, security cooperation, humanitarian support and cross-border economic activity. Poland’s role as Ukraine’s principal advocate within the EU and as a gateway for economic, infrastructural and societal integration has grown substantially. The conclusions highlight that long-term convergence between the two countries requires targeted strategies aimed at strengthening Ukraine’s economic resilience, addressing demographic imbalances and deepening institutional coordination, which will critically shape the prospects of Ukraine’s integration into the European economic and political space.