MODERN TRENDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND EXTRAPOLATION OF INDICATORS OF THE HOTEL AND RESTAURANT INDUSTRY OF UKRAINE

Abstract

The article examines the current state, key development trends, and extrapolation of the performance of hotel and restaurant establishments in Ukraine. Contemporary external and internal influencing factors are analysed, including the state of war, population migration, occupied territories, the economic crisis, impoverishment of the population, and other circumstances that hinder the functioning of the hotel and restaurant industry and introduce negative adjustments to the development and trends of the hospitality sector under study. The specific features of the formation of the hotel industry are identified, in particular its orientation towards internal potential, the intensity of competitive advantage development, and the optimisation of resources used by enterprises in the accommodation and food service sectors. An analysis of the dynamics of indicators characterising the state of the hospitality market is conducted, and the reasons for changes in demand are identified alongside a forecast of calculated indicators and future patterns. It is established that, despite the challenges posed by the war, since 2023 Ukraine’s hotel and restaurant sector has been gradually recovering, as evidenced by the growth in total revenue of leading industry companies. The hotel segment demonstrates positive dynamics due to an increase in the number of hotels, motels, and hostels. The study of the restaurant business market reveals economic transformations that have caused significant instability in the efficiency and profitability of enterprises, particularly those operating in narrow segments of the food market, given the low income levels and purchasing power of the population and its sharp decline. The analysis of the service sector of Ukraine’s Horeca market, based on core economic indicators, shows a gradual, albeit modest, upward trend in the effectiveness of service provision. Based on the findings, the necessity of developing mechanisms for the recovery and further development of the hospitality industry using an analytical approach is substantiated. In order to facilitate the effective functioning of the hotel and restaurant sector, it is imperative to implement a flexible system of state-level incentives for the industry. In addition, there is a need to increase the number of accommodation and food service facilities of different categories, with clear distinction in the specialisation of hospitality services offered. Further improvements in enterprise management within a dynamic socio-economic environment are also essential, as are the expansion of tourism activities.