SCENARIO APPROACH TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF REGIONAL HUMAN CAPITAL IN THE POST-CRISIS PERIOD
Abstract
The article examines how a scenario-based approach can be used to steer the development of regional human capital in a highly uncertain post-crisis context. The focus is on regions that simultaneously perform rear, transit and reception functions and therefore face overlapping security, demographic and social pressures. The study proposes a synthetic Regional Human Capital Index that aggregates education, health, labour market, innovation and social cohesion dimensions into a single measure suitable for dynamic analysis. On the basis of this index, three medium-term scenarios for the Lviv region are constructed up to 2030: optimistic, baseline and conservative. They differ by assumptions regarding the evolution of the security situation, the scale and structure of public and private investment in human capital, the intensity of return migration and the pace of reconstruction of social infrastructure. The research methodology combines index modelling, elements of scenario planning and sensitivity analysis. The scenario framework is used to test how alternative policy mixes and external conditions may shift the regional human capital trajectory within a corridor from stagnation to accelerated growth. Quantitative results highlight the critical role of migration balance, enrolment in reskilling programmes, stability of capital expenditures in education and health care, and the spread of corporate training for small and medium-sized enterprises. Even moderate improvements in these drivers produce a measurable increase in the index, whereas persistent underinvestment and weak institutional capacity lock the region into a low human capital equilibrium. The practical value of the article lies in providing regional authorities and stakeholders with a transparent toolset for prioritising human capital interventions, identifying high-impact policy levers and organising regular monitoring of key indicators that can trigger timely revision of strategic choices. The proposed framework can be adapted to other regions that face similar post-crisis challenges and used as a decision-support instrument when designing recovery strategies, regional development programmes and long-term investment plans in human capital.
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