MODELING OF THE PROCESS OF ASSESSING THE LEVEL OF FINANCIAL SECURITY OF THE STATE AND ITS THRESHOLD VALUE
Abstract
The article is devoted to highlighting research results aimed at forming a promising methodical approach to solving the problem of assessing the level of the financial component of the state's economic security. The existing approaches to the interpretation of the concept of "financial security of the state" are analyzed. A comparative analysis of existing methods of quantitative assessment of the level of financial security of the state and its threshold values was carried out. It has been proven that the results of the analysis of individual macroeconomic indicators, which reflect the actual state of affairs and the dynamics of financial security, do not make it possible to form a coherent objective picture of the state of financial security. Using the methods of system analysis and econometric modeling, a list of indicators was formed, the change in values of which characterizes the dynamics of the level of financial security of the state. Identification of such factors of financial security as the amount of official international reserves, real GDP, inflation index, public debt in relation to GDP and the share of the shadow economy in the volume of GDP, as well as the analysis of statistical information for the period 2009-2023 allowed to propose a scheme for determining the integral indicator of financial security. The specific weight of each of the above-mentioned factors in the structure of the integral indicator of the financial security of the state was determined by the methods of economic and mathematical modeling. Using the possibilities of discriminant analysis made it possible to implement a model for assessing the threshold level of the state's financial security and to determine the threshold value of the integral indicator of economic security. An analysis of the dynamics of the integral indicator of financial security was carried out, followed by an economic interpretation of the obtained results. Periods of a satisfactory and stable state of financial security of the state, as well as periods when the level of financial security was in an unsatisfactory state, were identified. Prospective directions for the application of the possibilities of economic and mathematical modeling in the management of the financial component of economic security at the national level are outlined.
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