YOUTH MIGRATION MOBILITY: DRIVERS OF GROWTH AND SECURITY IMPLICATIONS
Abstract
The article is directed at developing a comprehensive approach to analysing drivers of youth migration mobility growth in Ukraine and assessing this phenomenon from a national security perspective under wartime pressures on demographics, staffing of critical sectors, fiscal capacity, and institutional resilience. A combined systemic, institutional, and structural‑functional framework is employed, integrating conceptual and analytical modelling with a minimal indicator set suitable for monitoring under data constraints. Comparative and statistical analyses describe regularities of mobility along education‑to‑first‑job transitions across regions and time horizons, while abstract‑logical generalisation formalises definitions and cause‑and‑effect links. Youth migration mobility is specified as a holistic category with process‑related, structural, and security‑related dimensions. The study shows that distinct combinations of security, economic, educational, and institutional determinants channel trajectories from short and circular movements to long‑term emigration, generating human capital losses, skills mismatches, and regional disparities within the 18–34 cohort. A security‑focused conceptual model links drivers and outcomes to trackable indicators, enabling diagnosis of bottlenecks-safe housing, first‑job entry, qualification recognition, childcare – and alignment with practical tools. Policy directions are outlined to reduce losses and strengthen resilience: safety and housing in priority regions; first‑job programmes in reconstruction‑critical sectors with employer co‑financing; education‑to‑career bridges with return incentives; accelerated recognition through a one‑stop service and modular upskilling; support for circular mobility and diaspora‑based knowledge transfer. Expected effects include higher return rates and circularity, faster re‑entry into priority sectors, mitigation of regional imbalances, and reinforcement of security and recovery capacity through coordinated, evidence‑based implementation.
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