STUDY OF SPATIOTEMPORAL HETEROGENEITY OF FACTORS INFLUENCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF REGIONAL LOGISTICS SYSTEMS USING THE GTWR MODEL
Abstract
The aim of the article is to apply the GTWR model to study the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the influence of factors on regional logistics systems in order to form a locally adapted policy to promote the development of regional logistics systems. Using PEST analysis, factors influencing regional logistics systems were selected. These include political, economic, social and technological factors. Environmental regulation was selected as a political factor. Capital investments were selected as an economic factor. Transport infrastructure was selected as a social factor. Innovation potential and the level of digitalization were selected as technological factors. Descriptive characteristics of statistical results of explanatory variables were analyzed, which confirmed their independence. Based on the analysis of approaches to building spatio-temporal models, the geographical and temporal weighted regression (GTWR) model was selected. The GTWR model can simultaneously take into account the temporal and spatial non-stationarity of regression coefficients, which realizes a simultaneous explanation of the mechanism of temporal and spatial variations of various phenomena. A GTWR model was built on the indicators of 24 regions of Ukraine and the city of Kyiv for the period from 2002 to 2024. The analysis showed that the impact of various factors on regional logistics systems was characterized by spatial and temporal heterogeneity. In particular, an analysis of the temporal fluctuations of the GTWR regression coefficients was conducted. The impact of innovation on regional logistics systems is positive, except for the period from 2017 to 2020, and its positive effect gradually increases, indicating that the improvement of innovation capabilities contributes to the advancement of regional logistics systems. For all other factors, the positive impact on the development of the logistics industry also gradually increased over time. An analysis of the spatial distribution of the GTWR regression coefficients was conducted. From the spatial dimension, the driving effect of innovation capacity, the level of digitalization, capital investments and transport infrastructure on regional logistics systems was stronger for the eastern region than for the western one. A number of policy recommendations have been formulated to eliminate or reduce the spatial heterogeneity of the development of regional logistics systems in Ukraine.
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