QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE EFFICIENCY OF STIMULATING INVESTMENTS IN TRADE ENTERPRISES IN UKRAINE

Abstract

This article provides a concise quantitative assessment of how investment-stimulation policy affects Ukrainian trade enterprises during a period of economic and geopolitical turbulence. Drawing on macroeconomic statistics, expert surveys, and an original composite index, the study evaluates key determinants of investment attractiveness and the real efficiency of government incentives in a sector that once generated about 45 % of national GDP but has faced a 30 % fall in foreign direct investment and a 25 % drop in merchandise trade since 2022. The research combines a review of international practice with empirical analysis. Sixty-eight experienced professionals from government, business, and civil society assessed eight groups of investment risks using a five-point Likert scale. Data were processed in Excel and SPSS with descriptive statistics, Shapiro–Wilk tests, and Student’s t-test to ensure significance. External shocks and macroeconomic instability received the highest impact scores (≈3.9), while internal managerial factors scored slightly lower but remained important. The perceived ability to manage regulatory risks was relatively high (≈3.7), indicating that state policy could meaningfully reduce barriers. Business respondents rated tax incentives and accessible credit as the most effective tools, while industrial parks or direct co-financing were viewed as less practical. Simplified permitting and digital “one-stop” services achieved the highest effectiveness ratings (around 4.2–4.3). Major obstacles include legislative volatility, opaque regulation, and limited financing—findings that mirror global evidence linking institutional quality with investor confidence. Based on normalized indicators—legal stability, tax policy, institutional strength, infrastructure, financing access, and procedural transparency—the authors developed an Investment Attractiveness Index that reached 0.55 on a 0–1 scale, reflecting only moderate appeal. The conclusion emphasizes strengthening rule of law, improving financial inclusion, and systematically evaluating fiscal incentives as priority measures to raise this index and unlock the sector’s post-war recovery potential.