STRATEGIC FORECASTING TOOLKIT FOR FOREIGN TRADE OF THE BALTIC COUNTRIES UNDER THE CONDITIONS OF THE EUROPEAN UNION

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to develop a scientifically grounded toolkit for the strategic forecasting of foreign trade in the Baltic States within the context of their membership in the European Union. The relevance of the topic arises from the need to elaborate evidence-based approaches to forecasting the foreign economic activity of EU member states in a dynamic global environment. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are characterized by high levels of economic openness and significant dependence on external markets, which highlights the strategic importance of effectively forecasting foreign trade development trends. Based on the analysis of contemporary scientific approaches (neoliberal, institutional, structuralist, historical-evolutionary, regionalist, and systemic), a combined methodological framework is proposed, incorporating qualimetric and econometric methods, as well as the principles of systemic, institutional, and evolutionary analysis. The article substantiates the necessity of improving methodological approaches and tools for strategic forecasting of foreign trade activity in the Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) under EU membership. It is determined that the high degree of openness of these economies and their significant reliance on external markets require efficient mechanisms for forecasting trade flows in order to minimize risks, strengthen competitive positions, and ensure sustainable economic development. The developed approach includes several sequential stages: an analysis of the pre-integration condition of the foreign trade sector, an assessment of structural and institutional changes following EU accession, modeling of integration effects, empirical analysis of trade flows, identification of competitive advantages and the role of investments, as well as the formulation of strategic recommendations. The practical application of the proposed toolkit will enhance the effectiveness of foreign economic activity management in the Baltic States and may also be applied in comparative studies of other small open economies, particularly Ukraine.