ADAPTIVE APPROACH FOR ASSESSING THE INVESTMENT ATTRACTIVENESS OF INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS PROJECTS IN THE GREEN ENERGY SECTOR
Abstract
This article addresses the challenge of evaluating the investment attractiveness of international business projects in the renewable energy sector under high uncertainty. The topic is highly relevant given rapid changes in economic political and environmental conditions and the urgent need to attract capital for the energy transition. Traditional financial evaluation methods often overlook critical non-financial factors that are especially important in long-term renewable projects, such as policy support, infrastructure availability, and social considerations. To tackle this gap, the research aims to develop a holistic, flexible and adaptive methodological framework for assessing the investment attractiveness of renewable energy international business projects. The author proposes an integrated approach called the Green Multi-level Assessment Protocol. This framework first generates alternative future scenarios of the external environment using tools like PESTEL analysis, SWOT analysis and the Delphi method. It then constructs a multi-level hierarchical structure of evaluation criteria and determines their weights using expert surveys with pairwise comparisons. Renewable energy projects are grouped into clusters based on typical technical and financial characteristics. Each international business project is evaluated in each scenario using a weighted multi-criteria rating system, and the outcomes are aggregated into a single composite index through weighted averaging and sensitivity analysis. The methodology yields an integrated index reflecting each international business project’s performance across scenarios and factors, providing decision-makers with a transparent, systematic evaluation of risk-return trade-offs. Advantages include comprehensive coverage of factors, incorporating macro-level elements like regulator environment and market trends alongside project-specific criteria, and methodological transparency. The framework is valuable for strategic investment planning in the green energy sector. It provides a structured approach to justify investment decisions by yielding clear quantitative measures of international business project attractiveness across future scenarios. The tool can aid policymakers, investors and project developers-especially in countries undergoing energy transition or recovery-by aligning investment analysis with sustainability goals and improving decision robustness.
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