CURRENT TRENDS IN MACROECONOMIC PROCESSES IN UKRAINE ACCORDING TO THE SYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

Abstract

The study is motivated by the unprecedented shock that the full-scale war delivered to Ukraine’s macroeconomic processes, demanding rigorous scholarly interpretation. This article provides a holistic examination of the economy’s performance during 2021–2023 across the entire reproduction cycle, tracing the passage from production and primary income generation through distribution and redistribution to saving and asset accumulation, and pinpoints the dominant trends now forging a new macroeconomic configuration. Official national accounts and balance-of-payments statistics constitute the empirical base. Dynamic, structural and balancing techniques are employed to register rate changes, quantify shifts in the composition of output and income, and assess the redistribution effects of external grants. Results indicate a thirty-percent plunge in real output in 2022 followed by a modest rebound in 2023; a leap of the labour share of value added beyond one-half due to expanded defence payrolls; sharp compression and partial recovery of operating surplus; a record rise in gross disposable income underpinned by grants that generated a temporary savings glut; and an investment profile that collapsed amid uncertainty then more than doubled as reconstruction accelerated. Net lending flipped from chronic deficit to an interim surplus in 2022 before reverting to a sizable borrowing need in 2023, reflecting the interplay between import-heavy rebuilding and volatile external flows. Together these movements lay bare the buffering power of foreign aid, the adaptive reallocation of domestic resources, and the emergent priority of capital renewal. The practical value of the research resides in its policy guidance: bolstering business profitability through calibrated tax relief, crowding-in private investment by risk-sharing instruments and war-loss guarantees, and sequencing foreign assistance to preserve liquidity while restraining debt growth. The analytical framework and evidence offered support policymakers in balancing immediate defence expenditure with long-term resilience and inclusive recovery, and the methodology is readily transferable to other conflict-ravaged economies facing similar macroeconomic upheavals.