FORECASTING EVALUATION SAFETY MOTOR ROADS BY ESTIMATING SOCIO-ECONOMIC LOSSES FROM ROAD ACCIDENTS
Abstract
Road safety is a major factor in the economic growth of any country. When complying with all regulatory requirements for safety you can achieve "zero" deaths on the roads, in turn allows the efficient use of budgetary financial resources for other needs. In the conditions of constant growth of the number of vehicles on the highways of Ukraine, without proper development of the infrastructure the probability of accidents on the roads will increase. According to world statistics, every year road accidents kill tens of thousands and injure hundreds of thousands of people. Each traffic accident entails significant socio-economic losses, which depend exponentially on the severity of injuries or the presence of casualties. Thus, the annual amount of socio-economic losses from road accidents reflects the result of economic assessment of road safety. The object of the study is evaluation safety motor roads by the amount of socio-economic losses cased by road accidents in Ukraine and European countries. The purpose of the work is to calculate the approximate forecast of socio-economic losses in Ukraine and European countries until 2025 and to assess the effectiveness of investment in projects to improve road safety. Research methods - analysis of statistical data, forecasting of socio-economic losses on the basis of extrapolation of trends with the determination of the parameters of the quadratic equation by determinant method, comparison of the actual savings from reducing the losses from road accidents, calculation of economic efficiency of measures to improve road safety. The article presents the calculation of socio-economic losses from road accidents with the subsequent forecast of these costs in the 5-year perspective, as well as the evaluation of the effectiveness of investment in measures to improve road safety. It has been confirmed that the financing of road projects to improve road safety provides a significant economic benefit to the national economies of the European Union and Ukraine. The results of the work can be used in the investment process and in the preparation of a feasibility study of road projects.
References
Bezuglyi A. (2013) Otsinka socialno-economichnykh vtrat vid dorozhnyo-transportnykh prygod [Assessment of the socio-economic costs of road accidents]. Management of project, systems analysis and logistics, no 12, рp. 231–238. (in Ukrainian)
Bezuglyi A., Kontseva V., Stasiuk B. (2019) The Theorethical Aspects of Determination Index of Socio-economic Losses from Road Accidents. Visnyk National Transport University, issue 2 (44).
Bezuglyi A., Kontseva V., Stasiuk B. (2020) The Conceptual Background of Determination and the Reasoning of Size of Socio-Economic Losses from Road Accidents, Dorogi і mosti [Roads and bridges], no. 21, рр. 18–27. Available at: http://dorogimosti.org.ua/files/upload/18-27.pdf
Stasiuk B., Bezuglyi A., Kontseva V. (2020) The Rationale of the Safety Index for Estimation of Socio-Economic Costs of Road Accidents, Rivista Di Studi Sulla Sostenibilita, Issue 2.
Statistic of population and employment and GDP in Ukraine. Available at: http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ (accessed: 07.02.2021)
Official exchange rates from Euro to Hryvna. Available at: https://bank.gov.ua/ua/markets/exchangerate-chart?startDate=01.01.2009&endDate=14.02.2021 (accessed: 07.02.2021)
Statistic of GDP and main components (output, expenditure and income) in Europe. Available at: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/NAMQ_10_GDP__custom_542678/default/table?lang=en (accessed: 07.02.2021)
Statistic of population and employment in Europe. Available at: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/NAMQ_10_PE__custom_542660/default/table?lang=en (accessed: 07.02.2021)
Statistic of persons killed in road accidents by type of vehicle (CARE data) in Europe. Available at: https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=tran_sf_roadve&lang=en (accessed: 07.02.2021)
Bezuglyi A., Bibyk Y., Stasiuk B.: М 42.1-37641918-779:2020 “Methodology estimation socio-economic costs of road accidents”, signed first deputy of Head of State Road Agency of Ukraine.
Graboveckyi B. (2013) Plannuvannia ta Economichne Prognozuvannia [Planning and economic forecasting], Second edition, VNTU. Available at: http://hrabovecky.vk.vntu.edu.ua/file/b62a24a7998a0cfba91c11ba7ec693df.pdf
Resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine Pro zatverdzhennya Derzhavnoyi prohramy pidvyshchennya rivnya bezpeky dorozhnʹoho rukhu v Ukrayini na period do 2020 roku [About Approval of the State Program to Increase the Level of Road Safety in Ukraine for the Period up to 2020]. Available at: https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/435-2018-%D0%BF#Text (accessed: 07.02.2021)
