DEVELOPMENT OF THE EXPORT POTENTIAL OF UKRAINIAN IT SERVICES IN THE DIGITAL ECONOMY

Abstract

The article explores the impact of internal and external factors on the export potential of Ukrainian IT services in 2019–2024. It also defines key concepts such as export potential, digital transformation, human capital and digital maturity. Focusing on five major import markets (USA, Malta, UK, Cyprus, and Israel), which together account for more than 65% of national IT exports, the study uses panel data and correlation-regression analysis to examine the relationships between export volumes and indicators including gross domestic product (GDP), the Computer Services Trade Restrictiveness Index (STRI), the Network Readiness Index (NRI), the labor force, and Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) inflows. The results show that the number of IT professionals and the digitalization of partner economies have the strongest positive effect on export growth, while trade barriers significantly limit this growth. The constructed econometric model has high explanatory power (R² = 0.97), confirming the reliability of these relationships. This model emphasizes the priority of specialized human capital and technological readiness in comparison to macroeconomic factors. Based on these findings, the following recommendations are proposed: to foster enhanced collaboration between industry and academic institutions to align educational programs with market needs; to expand digital infrastructure; to simplify regulations and reduce the tax burden, to attract and retain skilled employees. The need to align domestic regulations with international standards for integrating the Ukrainian IT sector into global value chains is also emphasized. The study points out potential errors in measuring trade restrictiveness index and the lack of assessment of geopolitical risks. It is recommended that further research focus on the role of institutional factors and expand the time frame of the study to better account for global economic changes. These findings and recommendations serve as useful guidelines for developing effective policies and strategies to support Ukrainian IT exports in the context of rapid changes in global markets.