ECONOMIC TURMOIL IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBALIZATION AS A REASON FOR THE TRANSFORMATION OF THE WORLD ORDER

Abstract

The article examines the multidimensional impact of globalization on modern economic relations between countries of the world. It reveals both positive aspects (the spread of technology, capital mobility, growing interdependence) and negative consequences: economic inequality, political tension, inflation risks, and market destabilization. Particular attention is paid to the consequences of the tariff policy initiated by the US government in 2025, which became a direct threat to the global economy, provoking a new global economic recession due to the decline in global industrial production and, as a result, a decrease in the volume and pace of global trade. The authors conclude that such actions stimulate the fragmentation and regionalisation of world trade, when, in the face of uncertainty, companies change their supply chains, looking for partners and consumers in their own region or focusing on friendly countries. This, in turn, undermines trust in the United States as a reliable partner and forces countries to look for new partnerships. As a result, the authors predict that in the long run, other countries may take the place of the world leader. It is also noted that the tariff war caused fluctuations in the global stock and commodity markets. Fear of an industrial recession has plunged commodity prices (particularly oil) and reduced the confidence of major investors in the US markets as a place to invest safely. And uncertainty about the future actions of the US government further reduces the motivation for real investors who cannot carry out long-term business planning, resulting in major changes in the direction of global investment flows. Tariff wars may also stimulate institutional changes in global trade in the future, as D. Trump's government's refusal to pay membership fees to the World Trade Organisation and uncoordinated unilateral duties that are completely contrary to the WTO principles pose a threat to the existence and full functioning of this organisation. The authors also focus on the political consequences of such an ill-considered tariff policy – increased risks of an arms race, destruction of defence alliances and increased risks of a new full-scale war. The authors emphasise the need to rethink economic strategies in the new geopolitical environment.