ВИКЛИКИ ТА МОЖЛИВОСТІ РОЗВИТКУ ЗОВНІШНЬОЇ ТОРГІВЛІ УКРАЇНИ ПІД ЧАС ВІЙНИ

Abstract

The article examines the impact of current global and regional challenges on Ukraine’s foreign trade development under the conditions of military aggression by the Russian Federation. The research focuses on analyzing the dynamics of exports and imports, the structural transformation of foreign trade in goods and services, and changes in the trade balance. Special attention is given to key challenges, including port blockades, infrastructure destruction, rising logistics costs, increased risks in international settlements, and the loss of traditional markets. The study identifies significant shifts in Ukraine's export structure, particularly the decline in strategic sectors such as agriculture, metallurgy, and transport services. At the same time, there is an increasing role of high-value-added exports, particularly in telecommunications, computer, and IT services, which demonstrates Ukraine’s adaptation to new global economic conditions. The research also highlights Ukraine’s import dependence on critical goods, including energy resources, machinery, and pharmaceuticals, emphasizing the insufficient level of import substitution and the risks associated with supply chain disruptions. The article substantiates the prospects for Ukraine's foreign trade development, including the diversification of the geographical and product structure of exports, increased integration into global value chains, and the expansion of trade partnerships. The transition from raw material exports to high-value-added products, the enhancement of logistics routes through EU countries, and the strengthening of economic diplomacy are identified as key priorities. Furthermore, the need to expand exports of services, particularly financial, business, and high-tech services, is emphasized. The study concludes that enhancing Ukraine’s foreign trade resilience requires targeted reforms, improved trade policies, and deepened international cooperation to mitigate the consequences of geopolitical instability and economic shocks. Strengthening institutional capacity and investment in export-oriented industries will support the sustainable development of Ukraine’s foreign trade.