ANALYSIS OF THE WEEKLY CLOSING PRICE OF BITCOIN: INFLUENCING FACTORS AND TRADER'S FORECASTS
Abstract
The study focuses on the degree of correlation between the MACD histogram and the closing price of bitcoin on a weekly timeframe, which is an important factor in the formation of traders' forecasts within the framework of technical analysis. The main objectives of the study were to find out whether the minimum price of bitcoin increased or decreased compared to the previous week with similar changes in the MACD, as well as to determine the average and maximum series for the weekly closing price. The study found that in 54.45% of cases, a trader can expect the closing price of bitcoin to increase this week if the MACD histogram showed an increase in the previous week; or to decrease this week if the MACD histogram showed a decrease in the previous week. A trader can expect the closing price of bitcoin to continue its direction of movement in the second week 48.02% of the time. A trader can expect the closing price movement in one direction to end after the 4th week 95.48% of the time.
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Zeba A., Jinan F., Ahmer S., Mahpar A. Bitcoin Price Prediction using ARIMA Model. DOI: https://doi.org/10.36227/techrxiv.12098067.v1.
MACD Bitcoin data: weekly prices and histogram from 2018 to 2024. URL: https://math-bitcoin-predictions.com/research/macd-bitcoin/
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