THE IMPACT OF MACROFINANCIAL IMBALANCES ON STATE FINANCIAL SECURITY: ASSESSMENT TOOLS AND RISK MINIMIZATION STRATEGIES

Abstract

The article examines the impact of macrofinancial imbalances on state financial security, considering both internal and external factors contributing to economic instability. The main risks to financial stability are identified, including excessive debt burden, increasing budget deficit, balance of payments imbalances, and the instability of the banking system and foreign exchange market. It is proven that for Ukraine, the most critical challenges are the high level of public debt and dependence on external borrowing, which constrain the government’s ability to implement effective macroeconomic policies. It is established that financial risks are exacerbated by weak fiscal discipline, inefficient use of public funds, and a high level of corruption in the financial sector. A comparative analysis of financial security in Ukraine and developed countries confirms the necessity of implementing effective financial control and regulatory mechanisms. The role of fiscal policy as a tool for reducing macroeconomic risks is explored. It is demonstrated that the successful examples of the Baltic states confirm the effectiveness of strict fiscal discipline and balanced tax policy in ensuring the sustainability of public finances. The importance of economic de-shadowing, optimization of public expenditures, and increasing tax revenue efficiency is substantiated as prerequisites for reducing the budget deficit. It is determined that despite Ukraine's use of inflation targeting, the effectiveness of this instrument remains limited due to macroeconomic instability, external shocks, and high interest rates, which negatively affect credit activity and overall economic development. The influence of international banking sector regulation standards on financial security is examined. It is proven that the implementation of Basel III standards is a crucial step toward strengthening the banking system, increasing capital adequacy levels, and reducing the share of non-performing loans. A comprehensive approach to assessing macrofinancial imbalances is proposed, incorporating both quantitative and qualitative analytical methods. It is determined that effective management of macrofinancial risks requires coordinated efforts from the government, the central bank, international financial institutions, and the business environment to ensure financial stability and long-term economic growth.