MODELING PARTNERSHIP RELATIONS IN THE GOODS MARKET: THE VISEGRAD FOUR

Abstract

International trade is a fundamental component of economic relations among nations and holds particular significance in the era of globalization for the development of national economies. For countries within integration groups, such as the Visegrad Four, trade relations with partners within the group play a crucial role in shaping their economic strategies. These relations are influenced by both internal economic factors and global trends, underscoring the importance of analyzing not only the volume of trade operations but also the structure of these operations and the level of interdependence among countries in the group. The trade dynamics of Visegrad Four countries with each other and with the rest of the world exhibit significant variability, which has implications for their trade policies and strategic orientations. Export and import shares within the group significantly affect the degree of economic integration and the development of coordinated trade policies. The analysis of trade balances further provides insights into the equilibrium of external economic relations, laying the groundwork for crafting efficient economic strategies. Despite a growing body of literature on international trade, there remains insufficient focus on the systemic analysis of trade relations within the Visegrad Four. Specifically, limited research has been devoted to understanding the shares of internal trade partners and their implications for economic strategy formulation. This gap hinders the development of integrated approaches to evaluating trade dynamics and constructing robust policies to enhance economic cohesion within the group. This study aims to address this research gap by conducting a comprehensive analysis of external trade relations among Visegrad Four countries and their intra-group partners over the period from 2004 to 2023. Key objectives include evaluating trade diversification and interdependence, analyzing trade balance trends, and performing correlation and regression analyses to model the relationships between trade volumes and intra-group trade shares. The findings are expected to contribute to a deeper understanding of the trade dynamics within the Visegrad Four, facilitating evidence-based policy decisions. Furthermore, the study aims to provide actionable insights into improving trade strategies and economic integration within the group while considering global economic challenges.