ANALYZING THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE STRATEGIC BUSINESS CONTEXT BY SURVEY METHOD

Abstract

The article discusses the methodological problem of using the survey method at the stage of collecting primary data in studies of uncertainty in the strategic context of business. The main tools for strategic analysis of the external environment that study uncertainty are systematized, in particular, the PEST, PESTLE, STEEPLE and SWOT analysis methods, the FIVE FORCES analysis of industry competition and the map of strategic groups. It is noted that the collection of primary data for the implementation of strategic analysis procedures is mainly based on the results of previous expert assessments of factors and the state of the external environment. The bibliographic analysis highlights the works of Ukrainian scholars devoted to the problems of applying the tools of strategic analysis of the external environment to solve various research problems, including the study of the conditions of uncertainty in the strategic decision-making environment. Empirical studies of foreign scholars in a related field are considered, in which the hypotheses put forward are tested on the basis of survey results. It is determined that the choice of methods for collecting primary empirical data is an urgent problem of methodological design of the study of environmental uncertainty. This is due to the need to process a large amount of information on the quantitative and qualitative parameters of uncertainty in the strategic business context. `Therefore, in modern research projects, several methods of collecting primary data are used to obtain reliable qualitative information: surveys, observations, interviews, case studies, as well as methods of expert evaluation and statistical analysis. We assume that the use of the survey method in studies of strategic context uncertainty has its advantages and disadvantages, so the practice of its application needs to be systematized. The purpose of the article is to systematize the experience and results of applying the survey method at the stage of data collection in studies of uncertainty in the strategic context of business. To achieve this goal, the methodological design of studies of various thematic focuses conducted in 2023-2024 by international and Ukrainian consulting companies and analytical agencies was considered. The empirical data of these studies were obtained by interviewing target groups of respondents - managers of companies of various types of activities, scales and locations. It was found that the initial measurements of uncertainty in the global context were made by identifying the vision of business representatives regarding the content of modern challenges and their readiness to confront them. Characteristic of the methodology of research on the Ukrainian strategic business context is the inclusion in the questionnaire of questions about factors of external pressure, military threats, immediate expectations and forecasting of future changes. The article draws conclusions about the limitations and advantages of using the survey method in the methodology of researching the uncertainty of the strategic business context.