SOCIAL AND DEMOGRAPHIC POLICY: STRATEGIC IMPERATIVES AND RESTRICTIONS
Abstract
The article is devoted to the social and demographic policy mix’s implementation peculiarities, taking both strategic imperatives of sustainable development and institutional restrictions into account. The purpose of this study is to determine the prospects for improving the complex of social and demographic policy measures. To investigate the demographic shifts’ and the economic growth processes’ interrelation, the theoretical generalization of empirical experience was applied. A scenario modeling of demographic transition was performed to assess its impact on the population’s saving and consumer behaviour. The demographic dynamics’ transmission mechanism – regarding the concept of both public production and demographic transition – is determined. The necessity of improvements in the mechanism and the analytical tools for assessing the demographic factors’ impact on economic growth was sustained. The conceptual approaches to evaluate the fluctuations’ (in the working population stratum) impact on the general structure and dynamics of real GDP per capita, savings (as a percentage of GDP) and poverty are proposed. The specific features of the first and the second demographic dividends are summarized as well. Considering the macroeconomic cycles peculiarities, the demographic transition’s transmission mechanism is highlighted. The prerequisites for public welfare are investigated. The role of demographic forecasting and modeling (particularly in the context of population aging) is substantiated. It is pointed out that the priorities for the social and demographic policy mix should include: a) a profound improvement in the health care system in accordance with the advanced economies’ standards; b) a modernization in the educational paradigm taking the stakeholders’ interests into account, and c) creation of an economic and cultural space friendly for development. The second demographic dividend gained through the intensified accumulation of human intellectual capital and the rationalized structure of savings and investments was identified as the most pressing matter.
References
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Lee, R., & Mason, A. (2006). What is the demographic dividend? Finance and development, 43(3), 16–17.
Bloom, D., Canning, D., & Sevilla, J. (2003). The demographic dividend: A new perspective on the economic consequences of population change. Rand Corporation.
Acemoglu, D., & Johnson, S. (2007). Disease and development: the effect of life expectancy on economic growth. Journal of political Economy, 115(6), 925–985.
Acemoglu, D., Gallego, F. A., & Robinson, J. A. (2014). Institutions, human capital, and development. Annual Reviews of Economics, 6(1), 875–912.
Ziesemer, T., & von Gässler, A. (2021). Ageing, human capital and demographic dividends with endogenous growth, labour supply and foreign capital. Portuguese Economic Journal, 20(2), 129–160.
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Pasichnyi, M., & Nepytaliuk, A. (2021). The Contributions of Demographic Factors to Economic Growth. Problemy Ekorozwoju – Problems of Sustainable Development, 16(1), 219–229.
Nepytaliuk, A. V. (2019). Determinanty zabezpechennia demohrafichnoi stiikosti [Determinants for the demographic sustainability ensuring]. Zovnishnia torhivlia: ekonomika, finansy, pravo – Foreign trade: economics, finance, law, no 105(4), pp. 44–59. (in Ukrainian)
Kozlovskyi, S. V., Nepytaliuk, A. V. (2020). Demohrafichna skladova stratehii sotsialno-ekonomichnoho rozvytku [Demographic component of the socio-economic development strategy]. Ekonomika i orhanizatsiia upravlinnia, 2(38), 6–19. (in Ukrainian)
McMichael, A. J., Butler, C. D., & Folke, C. (2003). New visions for addressing sustainability. Science, 302(5652), 1919–1920.
Lee, R. (2016). Macroeconomics, aging, and growth. Economics of Population Aging, 1, 59–118.
Lindh, T., & Malmberg, B. (1998). Age structure and inflation – a Wicksellian interpretation of the OECD data. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 36(1), 19–37.
Abrigo, M. R., Racelis, R. H., Salas, J. M., Herrin, A. N., Ortiz, D. A., & Tam, Z. C. (2018). Are we missing out on the demographic dividend? Trends and prospects (No. 2018-43). PIDS Discussion Paper Series.
Allendorf, K. (2020). Another Gendered Demographic Dividend: Adjusting to a Future without Sons. Population and Development Review, 46(3), 471–499.
Cuaresma, J. C., Lutz, W., & Sanderson, W. (2014). Is the demographic dividend an education dividend? Demography, 51(1), 299–315.
Pasichnyi, M. (2017). Empirical study of the fiscal policy impact on economic growth. Problems and Perspectives in Management, 15 (3), 316–322.
Pasichnyi, M., Kaneva, T., Ruban, M., Nepytaliuk, A. (2019). The impact of fiscal decentralization on economic development. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 16(3), 29–39.
Lee, R., & Mason, A. (2006). What is the demographic dividend? Finance and development, 43(3), 16–17.
Bloom, D., Canning, D., & Sevilla, J. (2003). The demographic dividend: A new perspective on the economic consequences of population change. Rand Corporation.
Acemoglu, D., & Johnson, S. (2007). Disease and development: the effect of life expectancy on economic growth. Journal of political Economy, 115(6), 925–985.
Acemoglu, D., Gallego, F. A., & Robinson, J. A. (2014). Institutions, human capital, and development. Annual Reviews of Economics, 6(1), 875–912.
Ziesemer, T., & von Gässler, A. (2021). Ageing, human capital and demographic dividends with endogenous growth, labour supply and foreign capital. Portuguese Economic Journal, 20(2), 129–160.
Kozlovskyi, S., Pasichnyi, M., Lavrov, R., Ivaniuta, N., & Nepytaliuk, A. (2020). An Empirical Study of the Effects of Demographic Factors on Economic Growth in Advanced and Developing Countries. Comparative Economic Research. Central and Eastern Europe, 23(3), 45–67.
Khachatrian, V., Nepytaliuk, A., Pasichnyi, M., Nasibova, O., & Tabenska, J. (2023). Demographics’ impact on economic growth in Central Europe and the Baltic states. Economics – Innovative and Economics Research Journal, 11(Special issue 1), 37–54.
Pasichnyi, M., & Nepytaliuk, A. (2021). The Contributions of Demographic Factors to Economic Growth. Problemy Ekorozwoju – Problems of Sustainable Development, 16(1), 219–229.
Nepytaliuk, A. V. (2019). Determinanty zabezpechennia demohrafichnoi stiikosti [Determinants for the demographic sustainability ensuring]. Zovnishnia torhivlia: ekonomika, finansy, pravo – Foreign trade: economics, finance, law, no 105(4), pp. 44–59. (in Ukrainian)
Kozlovskyi, S. V., Nepytaliuk, A. V. (2020). Demohrafichna skladova stratehii sotsialno-ekonomichnoho rozvytku [Demographic component of the socio-economic development strategy]. Ekonomika i orhanizatsiia upravlinnia, 2(38), 6–19. (in Ukrainian)
McMichael, A. J., Butler, C. D., & Folke, C. (2003). New visions for addressing sustainability. Science, 302(5652), 1919–1920.
Lee, R. (2016). Macroeconomics, aging, and growth. Economics of Population Aging, 1, 59–118.
Lindh, T., & Malmberg, B. (1998). Age structure and inflation – a Wicksellian interpretation of the OECD data. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 36(1), 19–37.
Abrigo, M. R., Racelis, R. H., Salas, J. M., Herrin, A. N., Ortiz, D. A., & Tam, Z. C. (2018). Are we missing out on the demographic dividend? Trends and prospects (No. 2018-43). PIDS Discussion Paper Series.
Allendorf, K. (2020). Another Gendered Demographic Dividend: Adjusting to a Future without Sons. Population and Development Review, 46(3), 471–499.
Cuaresma, J. C., Lutz, W., & Sanderson, W. (2014). Is the demographic dividend an education dividend? Demography, 51(1), 299–315.
Pasichnyi, M. (2017). Empirical study of the fiscal policy impact on economic growth. Problems and Perspectives in Management, 15 (3), 316–322.
Pasichnyi, M., Kaneva, T., Ruban, M., Nepytaliuk, A. (2019). The impact of fiscal decentralization on economic development. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 16(3), 29–39.
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