ALGORITHM FOR ASSESSING GRAIN MARKET CONDITIONS IN THE CONTEXT OF UKRAINE'S EXPORTS TO THE EU
Abstract
The article is devoted to the study of the main problems of assessing the grain market conditions and development of an algorithm in the context of Ukraine's exports to the EU. The key problems of the development of Ukraine's grain exports to the EU countries in the context of war are outlined. An algorithm for assessing the grain market conditions in the context of Ukraine's exports to the EU countries is developed, which includes the following stages: analysis of the production volumes of the main types of grain in Ukraine; analysis of grain exports; analysis of the dynamics of grain prices; analysis of the competitive positions of grain exporting countries in the world market and the EU; analysis of European regulatory requirements; development of forecast data on the volume of Ukraine's grain exports to the EU countries. It is determined that the most important area for assessing the grain market situation is the analysis of grain production in Ukraine as a whole and by regions, in particular in the context of war. The author analyses the structure of grain production in Ukraine by type of grain (wheat, corn, barley). It is determined that military operations have directly affected access to land, disrupted sowing and harvesting campaigns. As a result of these factors, in 2022 Ukraine harvested about 53-54 million tonnes of grain, which is about 40% less than in 2021. In 2023, the grain harvest totalled 59.77 million tonnes, up 10% year-on-year. The study structures grain production volumes by regions of Ukraine, and found that in 2023 the highest grain yields in Ukraine were demonstrated by the following regions: Poltava (52772.8 thousand tonnes), Vinnytsia (49,917.7 thousand tonnes), Chernihiv (49,000.2 thousand tonnes), Cherkasy (44,754 thousand tonnes), Odesa (40,481.3 thousand tonnes), Kirovohrad (39915.1 thousand tonnes), Khmelnytskyi (36998.2 thousand tonnes), Kyiv (37831.3 thousand tonnes), Sumy (35740.2 thousand tonnes), Dnipro (39915.1 thousand tonnes) and others. The advantages and investment opportunities for increasing grain yields in key regions of Ukraine are summarised. It is determined that the greatest investment potential in terms of soil fertility and increase in grain yields falls on the following regions: Poltava, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Vinnytsia, and Khmelnytskyi. Attracting international investment to build new routes for transporting Ukrainian grain to the EU should be implemented in Odesa region, which has the most favourable geographical location in terms of grain transportation. The article summarises the directions of development for improving grain production and quality, which consist in the use of green technologies, which will lead to increased investment, improved grain production efficiency, reduced negative impact on the environment and improved grain quality in accordance with EU standards.
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