ASSESSMENT OF MACRO-FINANCIAL STABILITY IN UKRAINE: KEY INDICATORS FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL ORGANISATIONS

Abstract

The leading economic and financial systems of the world today are under the influence of macro-financial instability caused by crises of a global scale: changes in the geopolitical map, economic and financial post-Covid effect and uncertainty before the militarization of economies, which means changes in the financial system of each country. For a long time, the national economy of Ukraine has been under the influence of either subjective decisions of state administration bodies or in anticipation of financial assistance from donor countries, partner countries, and beneficiary countries. The conditions remain challenging, and the budget deficit financing is inevitable. Under such conditions, the decision to use fiscal instruments to supplement the budget, particularly taxes, is quite apparent. At the same time, their growth can lead to the shadowing of the economy due to the tax burden on business entities. Therefore, in the conditions of limited time resources, the need for an alternative solution to financing the budget deficit, and the global nature of the crisis in the context of its impact on macro-financial stability, financial support from international financial organizations becomes a decisive solution for the overall result. However, financing through the funds of international financial organizations has an objective character based on clear macro-financial indicators of the country, which become determinants of the stability of its financial system. Under such conditions, it is possible to ensure maximum efficiency between the actions of the government of the recipient country and the international financial organisation. The study proves the need to consider a whole set of macro-financial indicators: stability (fiscal and monetary stability), security (debt and budget security), and efficiency (efficiency of state expenditure management, efficiency of state borrowing management). All groups of macro-financial indicators are interconnected, and based on the analysis of their calculations, the state administration bodies can make decisions that will ensure the consistency of their decisions and the intentions of international financial organisations regarding financial assistance. In particular, such a situation is observed in Ukraine. It is caused by chronic mistrust and relatively low values of macro-financial indicators of debt security, which causes potential risk for international financial organisations regarding long-term or bad debt financing.