AN ALGORITHM FOR DIAGNOSING CRISIS PHENOMENA AT THE EARLY STAGES AS PART OF THE MECHANISM FOR ENSURING THE ECONOMIC SECURITY OF AN ENTERPRISE
Abstract
The article discusses the mechanism of forecasting and prompt response to crisis phenomena. It is important to identify a crisis at an early stage. This has a direct impact on maintaining a sufficient level of economic security. This is especially true in the context of the ongoing war in Ukraine. A model for early detection of crises has been developed, which can be integrated into the overall system of improving the economic security of an enterprise. An algorithm for creating such models for any enterprise has also been developed. The model also includes a forecasting unit designed to characterise the economic security of organisations of different profiles and scales of activity, and to assess indicators based on the dynamics of indicator deviations over a certain period. Signal indicators are divided into three groups: the level of foreign economic security depends on the position chosen by the enterprise in the foreign market; internal economic security, which characterises the ability of the enterprise to respond to changes in the internal sphere with the most optimal solutions; sectoral economic security, which characterises the ability of the enterprise to find optimal ratios in interaction with other entities in the process of integrating interests. These groups are used to form a fuzzy indicator base. For each group of indicators and for the organisation as a whole, two integral indicators of signal truth and overall signal level are formed. Based on the results of these calculations, the scale of signals (forecast of the scale of the crisis in each area of economic security, as well as for the organisation as a whole) and the intensity of signals of the threat of crisis (characterising the crisis in terms of the depth of coverage, i.e. the depth of development of crisis phenomena in the organisation) are determined. The forecasting unit should become part of the firm's management software. The scientific novelty of the study is that the authors have formed a forecasting block as the first stage of preserving and improving economic security. The proposed mechanism will help to ensure the sustainable functioning of business structures in a crisis. The results of the study were formalised for the construction industry.
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