RESEARCH OF FACTORS INFLUENCED ON THE LABOR MARKET WITH THE HELP OF ECONOMETRIC MODELING

Abstract

The article examines the impact of factors determining the labor market of Ukraine for the period 2010-2021 using econometric modeling. Systematization of the factors used to analyze the level of employment and the level of unemployment of the population of Ukraine has been carried out. Among a number of indicators that determine the development of the labor market, those that have the closest relationship with the level of employment (labor productivity, labor cost index, capital investment index) and the level of unemployment (GDP per capita, average monthly salary) are highlighted, consumer price index). The starting base for building the econometric model of the employment level and the model of the unemployment level is statistical data of macro indicators of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine for 2010–2021 (in connection with the state of war, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine stopped updating, therefore, to preserve the completeness of the data, this period was selected). To build econometric models of the level of employment and the level of unemployment, the "Regression" tool of the MS Excel spreadsheet was used. Based on the results of the built models, an analysis of the nature of the dependence between the indicated indicators and influencing factors was carried out. Based on the base table of dispersion analysis, the models were tested for adequacy and statistical conclusions were drawn. It was established that with an increase in labor productivity by 1%, the level of employment will decrease by 0.103%; if the labor cost index increases by 1%, the employment rate will increase by 0.017%; if the capital investment index increases by 1%, the employment rate will increase by 0.091%. If GDP per capita increases by 1%, the unemployment rate will increase by 0.325%; if the average monthly wage increases by 1%, the unemployment rate will decrease by 0.194% (feedback confirming the Phillips curve); if the consumer price index increases by 1%, the unemployment rate will increase by 0.387%. The resulting models can be used to analyze and develop alternative strategies for the development of the labor market.