BASIC METHODS OF FORESIGHT-VISIONARY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ENTERPRISES
Abstract
The article is devoted to the consideration of topical problems of the use of foresight methods to determine the state, scale and nature of innovative changes in the future. It substantiates the importance of applying the main methods for foresight-vision in determining the milestones of development of enterprises, their groups and entire states, since this approach allows to predict with high accuracy the development of social needs at the macro- and mesoeconomic levels, especially high-tech enterprises. It is emphasized that the methods of foresight of the future development of any objects allow not only to systematize the existing facts of development, but also to analyze large amounts of information on these objects, to determine trends and possible innovations in the future to increase the efficiency of enterprises and states. The application of foresight methods allows enterprises to more accurately identify potential risks and opportunities for positive changes arising from future transformations in the technological, economic and socio-cultural environment. Attention is drawn to the fact that these methods have long been used to predict the development of technology and technology in the USA, EU countries, Korea, Japan, Canada, while Ukrainian scientists also widely use foresight methods to predict the development of technology and technology, social changes and economic changes. It is recommended to use a wide range of foresight methods that are required when predicting changes in enterprises, among such methods the most important are: the method of "expert panels," the Method of developing scenarios, the Delphi method and others. The use of foresight methods will help enterprises to be more flexible and timely adapt to changes in the economic environment and ensure sustainability and competitiveness in the future. This approach will help businesses to be more flexible and adaptive to changes in their economic environment and ensure their sustainability and competitiveness in the future and also create such new consumer qualities of new products that will become familiar in the future.
References
Berze O. Mapping Foresight Practices Worldwide. Discussion Paper. URL: http://projects.mcrit.com/esponfutures/documents/International%20Studies/Ottilia%20Berze_Mapping%20Foresight%20Practices%20Worldwide.pdf. (дата звернення 22.05.2024)
Miles I. Introduction to technology foresight. UNIDO. Workshop. Technology Foresight for Practitioners (Roadmapping). Prague. 2008.
Martin B.R .Foresight in science and technology. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management. 1995. 7:139–168. doi:10.1080/09537329508524202
Miles I., Popper R. The Handbook of Technology Foresight. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar. 2008.
Форсайт економіки України: середньостроковий (2015–2020 роки) і довгостроковий (2020–2030 роки) часові горизонти / під наук. керівн. М. З. Згуровського. Київ : НТУУ «КПІ», 2015. 136 с.
Горіховський М. В. Використання форсайт-технологій в управлінні фермерським господарством. Науковий вісник Ужгородського національного університету. 2017. No 11. С. 24–27.
Решетняк О. І. Форсайт-методи в управлінні науково-технологічним розвитком. Ефективна економіка. 2019. № 12. – URL: http://www.economy.nayka.com.ua/?op=1&z=7492 (дата звернення 22.05.2024). DOI: 10.32702/2307-2105-2019.12.67
Інституційно-організаційні основи проведення форсайт-дослідження «Економіка України – 2050» : колективна монографія / за наук. ред. д-р екон. наук, проф., чл.-кор. НАН України М.І. Скрипниченко ; НАН України, ДУ «Ін-т екон. та прогнозув. НАН України». – Електрон. дані. – К., 2021. – 492 с. URL : http://ief.org.ua/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/Forsite-Ukraine_2050-3.pdf
United Nations Industrial Development Organisation Technology foresight manual, 2005. Vol. 1–2, Vienna
Форсайт в Україні: Призначення форсайту. URL: http://www.uintei.kiev.ua/page/pryznachennya-forsaytu. (дата звернення 22.05.2024)
Про затвердження Державної програми прогнозування науково-технологічного розвитку на 2004-2006 роки / Постанова КМУ №1086 від 25.08.2004 р. [Електронний ресурс] Офіційний сайт Верховної Ради України. – URL: http://zakon3.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/1086-2004-%D0%BF . (дата звернення 22.05.2024)
Форсайт 2018: Аналіз підготовки і перепідготовки фахівців природничого і технічного спрямування, виходячи з цілей сталого соціально-економічного розвитку України до 2025 року. К. : НТУУ «КПІ імені Ігоря Сікорського», Вид-во «Політехніка». 2018. 32 с.
Berze O. (2016) Mapping Foresight Practices Worldwide. Discussion Paper. URL: http://projects.mcrit.com/esponfutures/documents/International%20Studies/Ottilia%20Berze_Mapping%20Foresight%20Practices%20Worldwide.pdf . (accessed on May 22, 2024) (in Ukrainian)
Miles, I. (2008) Introduction to technology foresight. UNIDO Workshop “Technology Foresight for Practitioners (Roadmapping)”. Prague.
Martin., B.R. (1995) Foresight in science and technology. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management. Vol. 7, pp.139–168.
Miles I., Popper R. (2008) The Handbook of Technology Foresight. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.
Forsait ekonomiky Ukrainy na serednostrokovomu (2015–2020 roky) i dovhostrokovomu (2020–2030 roky) chasovykh horyzontakh [Foresight of Ukraine’s economy in the medium-term (2015–2020) and long-term (2020–2030) time horizons] (2015). World Data Center for Geoinformatics and Sustainable Development. URL: http://ied.kpi.ua/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Foresight-2015.pdf (accessed on May 22, 2024) (in Ukrainian)
Gorikhovskyi, M. V. (2017) Vykorystannia forsait-tekhnolohii v upravlinni fermerskym hospodarstvom [Foresight technologies using in farming management], Naukovyi visnyk Uzhhorodskoho natsionalnoho universytetu, Vol. 11, pp. 24–27 (in Ukrainian)
Reshetnyak, O. I. (2019) Foresight methods in the management of scientific and technological development [Forsait-metody v upravlinni naukovo-tekhnolohichnym rozvytkom], Efektyvna ekonomika, No. 12. Retrieved from: http://www.economy.nayka.com.ua/pdf/12_2019/69.pdf (accessed on May 22, 2024) (in Ukrainian)
Skrypnychenko M.I. (2021) Instytutsiino-orhanizatsiini osnovy provedennia forsait-doslidzhennia «Ekonomika Ukrainy – 2050» : kolektyvna monohrafiia [Institutional and organizational foundations of foresight research "Economy of Ukraine - 2050": collective monograph]. Kyiv: NAN Ukrainy, DU «In-t ekon. ta prohnozuv. NAN Ukrainy». (in Ukrainian)
United Nations Industrial Development Organisation Technology foresight manual (2005), Vol. 1–2, Vienna
UINTEI. (2019) Forsayt v Ukrayini: Pryznachennya forsaytu. [Foresight in Ukraine: Purpose of Foresight] URL: http://www.uintei.kiev.ua/page/pryznachennya-forsaytu (accessed on May 22, 2024). (in Ukrainian)
Pro zatverdzhennia Derzhavnoi prohramy prohnozuvannia naukovo-tekhnolohichnoho ta innovatsiinoho rozvytku na 2004–2006 roky: Postanova Kabinetu Ministriv Ukrainy, No. 1086, 25.08.2004 [On approval of the State Program for forecasting scientific and technological and innovative development for 2004–2006: Law of Ukraine, No. 1086, 25.08.2004]. Retrieved from: http://zakon5.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/1086-2004-п . (accessed on May 22, 2024) (in Ukrainian)
NTU KPI. (2018), Forsayt 2018: Analiz pidhotovky i perepidhotovky fakhivtsiv pryrodnychoho i tekhnichnoho spryamuvannya, vykhodyachy z tsiley staloho sotsialʹno-ekonomichnoho rozvytku Ukrayiny do 2025 roku. [Foresight 2018: Analysis of training and retraining of natural and technical specialists, based on the goals of sustainable socio-economic development of Ukraine until 2025.]. NTUU «KPI imeni Ihorya Sikorsʹkoho», Vyd-vo «Politekhnika». Kiev. 32 p. (in Ukrainian)