GLOBAL TRENDS IN DEVELOPMENT OF AIR TRANSPORTATIONS

Abstract

The rapid development of the air transport industry, which had been observed for many years, has slowed dramatically, due to global changes in recent decades. Long-term trends in civil aviation development have become less favorable. Studies have shown that the general response of airlines to the sharp decline in demand due to the pandemic was to reduce flights and lower prices, but the degree of impact varied between traditional and low-cost airlines. There were also regional differences in the response to the decline in demand for air travel, depending on the airline's model. Passenger traffic suffered the largest decline as a result of the pandemic, so the recovery rate is high in almost all areas. The growth rate of RPK for domestic air transportation after the pandemic exceeds the recovery rate of international traffic. The analysis shows that there is a balance between the demand for passenger air transportation and the capacity of airlines, which is observed in the context of the recovery of passenger traffic. After the largest drop in 2020, there has been a steady increase in airline passenger load factor. Airlines that have suffered significant losses in recent years have become profitable for the first time since 2019. However, the calculations show that it is impossible to reach the “pre-pandemic” forecast levels either in the medium-term forecasting horizon (until 2028) or in the long-term (until 2038). Even under optimistic scenarios, after the 2020-2023 pit, the projected growth rates will allow the industry to simply return to pre-pandemic levels. In order to overcome the losses caused by the pandemic crisis to the air transportation industry, it is necessary to ensure passenger traffic growth rates at a level significantly faster than before 2019. However, this is not a realistic option given the structural economic crisis and increased political instability. The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East are significantly limiting the potential for airspace utilization and international air traffic in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region. In the near future, these factors, the economic crisis, and other global challenges will continue to have a significant impact on the development of international air transportation.