THEORETICAL-ANALYTICAL REVIEW OF NEGATIVE SCENARIO OF THE ENDING OF THE WAR

Abstract

The article is dedicated to the actual problem of forecasting potential scenarios for the conclusion of the russian-Ukrainian war. The main goal of this article is to create a theoretical-analytical overview of possible models for the functioning of the country's economy under a negative scenario of the war ending. The relevance of this task is underestimated, as reflected in the number of scientific works and expert reviews on positive and neutral scenarios of the war ending. There is practically no research devoted to studying the negative scenario of this war. We consider that studying the negative scenario is equally important in the comprehensive examination of the post-war recovery and economic development in Ukraine. The negative scenario is considered to be the ending of the war through russia's victory. According to this scenario, we have identified four development models. Two of them are neutral and involve partial preservation of political and economic freedom with the possibility of interaction with Western economic partners; the probability of these models persists even in situations of prolonged conflict freezing, which can be attributed to both negative and neutral scenarios. Also, two models are presented in our overview that are characterized by an almost complete loss of freedom and the transformation of Ukraine into a satellite state or one of the regions of the russian federation. All models are based on our research of the works of scientists and experts on the history of the USSR and russia - russia uses similar approaches and instruments in the modern world. The general conclusion of the work is the recognition that under any of the models, Ukraine will not have sufficient freedom and investment attractiveness to create conditions for intensive regional development. The main resources will be used for the country's reconstruction and for maintaining its functioning as a country with characteristics typical of third-world countries. Achieving pre-war indicators and any time frames for the negative scenario is absent due to the large variability and uncertainty of events under such a scenario.