AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS OF UKRAINE: ANALYSIS AND STRATEGIC PLANNING

Abstract

The agricultural sector of the economy is the international business card of the state, due to Ukraine's significant contribution to the world food market. It forms almost a quarter of the volume of the gross domestic product (GDP), and the high level of production, and in recent years its specialization and concentration, allows to develop exports. This is also facilitated by a number of legislative initiatives by which the state joined international agricultural markets. In general, the current state of agricultural exports is a consequence of the unprecedented economic and political situation and the incredible efforts made by business and the state for its development, so it is necessary to optimally use the advantages associated with the expansion of Ukraine's presence on international markets. The formation of a strategy for the post-war development of agricultural exports, the determination of its economic and commercial potential is an important scientific and methodological task, the approaches to which are based on analytical research methods. Based on the analysis of statistical data, it follows that a significant share of agricultural exports is occupied by crop products. In the pre-war year 2021, it accounted for $15.5 billion, or 56% of total industry exports, primarily due to the grain group. Fats and oils of vegetable and animal origin occupied a niche of $7.0 billion or 25% of exports, at the expense of sunflower oil. Finished products were exported for $3.8 billion, or 14% of exports, the basis of which was sunflower cake. Revenue from the livestock industry amounted to $1.4 billion, or 5% of exports, mostly poultry meat. The realities of wartime agricultural exports, as noted by the researchers, are: disruption of production and distribution logistics chains: destruction or idling of production facilities; pollution, mining or occupation of agricultural land; lack of specialized warehouses for storing products intended for export; impossibility of free movement of goods, especially by sea; insufficient rolling stock – wagons and trucks; protectionism of individual countries, etc. The embargo on the export of grain, which was temporarily introduced by Poland, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia in 2023, significantly hindered export activity. The disclosure and research of the analytical component of the formation of the strategy for the development of agricultural exports of Ukraine made it possible to determine that there is a direct dependence of the volumes of agricultural exports on the gross output of the industry, since the manufactured products are one of the components of the volumes of exports. The price of the dollar, the supply of agricultural enterprises with basic means, and the share of agriculture in total exports turned out to be significant influencing factors. The inverse dependence of the volume of agricultural exports on factors was demonstrated by labor productivity, an innovative component. The formation of the Strategy for the post-war recovery and development of agricultural exports should be based on the close connection of the processes of foreign economic activity in the agricultural sector, the main role of the state, the improvement of legislation, the formation of an appropriate export infrastructure, the involvement of international donors in the domestic economy for its reconstruction and the organization of the management system of the agricultural sector.