ECONOMIC AND MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF ASSESSMENT OF THE INVESTMENT POTENTIAL OF UKRAINE
Abstract
The article examines the mechanism of investment policy functioning in Ukraine, considering the distribution of investments within the country and deductions for servicing the state's foreign debt. An approach to modeling the state's investment policy is proposed. To analyze the investment situation in the country, statistical data on investment flows and fixed assets in the sectors of the economy are used. A model of the country's investment development in the form of a system of differential equations has been developed. To analyze the obtained model, it is transformed into a discrete form, and the right side of the equation is approximated by the GDP change function in the form of the Cobb-Douglas function. It is proposed to use the Bellman method for a more efficient distribution of investments between economic sectors. The obtained results were analyzed on the example of indicators of industrial and agricultural sectors, as well as statistical data on Ukraine's foreign debt for the period from 2011 to 2021, and the method of dynamic modeling was used to assess the effectiveness of the investment policy. The obtained research results are based on the use of economic and mathematical modeling, optimal management, and economic theory. To provide a reliable statistical base for the analysis, data collected by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine and the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine were used. At this stage of the country's development, investment activity in the industrial sector, v_1 (t), exceeds investment activity in the agricultural sector, v_2 (t), and is dominant, contributing to the economy's modernization. The general trend of investment activity corresponds to the external debt function, which, as already noted, reflects the degree of dependence of the country on the external conjuncture. And since this indicator was relatively high for the economy of Ukraine in the period from 2015 to 2019, the higher the value of v_1 (t), the higher the indicators of investment activity in both sectors of the economy.
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