MODELING THE PROBABILITY OF ENTERPRISE BANKRUPTCY (ON THE EXAMPLE OF PJSC "KROPYVNYTSKYI OEZ")

Abstract

In today's environment, to ensure the development of an enterprise, management personnel must, first of all, be able to realistically assess both the financial condition of their enterprise and existing potential competitors. Financial condition is the most important characteristic of an enterprise's economic activity. It determines competitiveness, and potential in business cooperation, and assesses the extent to which the economic interests of the company and its partners are guaranteed in financial and production relations. In 2021, the agro-industrial complex accounted for 10% of the country's GDP. Agricultural enterprises are an important driving force in the Ukrainian economy. Ukraine is an industrial and agricultural country with a predominance of raw material production. It is one of the leading exporters of certain types of agricultural products. To date, a significant part of the agricultural industry in Ukraine has suffered a crisis in enterprises due to the loss of crop areas as a result of a full-scale invasion. The task of determining the likelihood of bankruptcy of agricultural production institutions is relevant because reliable and timely identification of negative factors affecting the company's financial and economic activities makes it possible to formulate an appropriate financial policy and develop measures aimed at improving the efficiency of financial resources. It also helps to increase solvency, ensure long-term competitiveness, and most importantly, prevent the risk of bankruptcy. Bankruptcy diagnostics is the timely detection of insolvency, unprofitability, financial dependence on external sources of financing, and low business activity. To prevent the insolvency of an enterprise promptly, it is necessary to systematically analyze its activities. There are several groups of methods that can be used to predict the onset of bankruptcy. The most common are economic and mathematical methods of predicting the probability of bankruptcy, namely, discriminative analysis, which includes the five-factor model of E. Altman adapted, the discriminant model of R. Liss, and the discriminant model of O. Tereshchenko. The purpose of the article is to demonstrate the analysis of the probability of bankruptcy of an enterprise in the agrarian sector of activity based on PJSC "Kropyvnytskyi SEZ" with the help of such foreign and domestic factor models as the Altman, Lis, and Tereshchenko models.