ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL CONSEQUENCES OF THE WAR IN UKRAINE, IMPACT OF THE CONFLICT ON THE GLOBAL ECONOMY

Abstract

Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the conflict between the two nations escalated into a full-scale war, leading to a serious humanitarian crisis affecting millions of people and a severe economic shock, the duration and extent of which is uncertain. This article presents the first assessment of the potential impact of the conflict on the world economy based on the shocks observed so far and its implications for public policy. The purpose of the article: to justify the economic and social consequences of the war in Ukraine and the impact of the conflict on the world economy. Statement of the task: to make an assessment of the potential impact of the conflict on the world economy based on the upheavals that have been observed so far and its consequences for public policy. Methodology: in the process of research, a systematic approach, methods of analysis and synthesis, expert evaluations were used. Prior to the onset of the conflict, global post-pandemic recovery was expected to continue in 2022 and 2023, supported by continued progress in global immunization efforts, expansionary macroeconomic policies across sectors of the economy, and favorable financial conditions. The December 2021 OECD Economic Outlook forecast global GDP growth to reach 4.5% in 2022 and 3.2% in 2023. After that, national accounts data and high-frequency readings in early 2022 remained broadly in line with this forecast, and economic activity quickly recovered from the disruptions associated with the Omicron option in most countries. At the same time, rising food and energy prices, pandemic-related supply constraints and a rapid recovery in demand since mid-2020 have led to an acceleration and generalization of inflation in most countries, especially in the United States, Latin America and many Central American countries, Eastern European countries. Rising prices for energy and certain raw materials, slowing economic growth and turmoil in global financial markets: the main economic consequences of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The main consequence of the war in Ukraine is human losses and a humanitarian crisis associated with a large number of displaced persons. However, it also carries numerous economic consequences.