UKRAINE'S ROLE IN THE GLOBAL GRAIN MARKET: CHALLENGES AND THREATS
Abstract
Challenges and risks related to ensuring food security in the world, which arose as a result of the COVID pandemic, significantly intensified in 2022 in the process of Russia's aggressive war in Ukraine. The source of such risks is the increase in price volatility on the global grain market due to the destruction of well-established supply chains. However, the situation in 2022 is worsened by the fact that the war has been unleashed precisely in Ukraine, on the territory of which agricultural production is traditionally carried out and grain supplies are carried out to the markets of Europe, the Middle East and African countries. Ukraine is one of the leaders in the export of grain crops, which directly or indirectly affect food security in the world. The article is devoted to the topical issues of Ukraine's role in the world grain market and the challenges and threats that arose as a result of the war unleashed by Russia. The potential of the grain market in Ukraine is characterized and the place of Ukraine in the world rankings for the production and export of wheat, corn and barley is reflected. In particular, risks for the grain industry of Ukraine were identified, namely: a decrease in sown areas, a lack of elevators, and financial losses from the lack of export revenue. The commodity and geographical structure of grain exports during the war is characterized, and the importance of Ukrainian grain as a product that forms global food security is indicated. Attention is focused on the fact that the lack of supply and significant demand for food contributes to the increase in prices for grain products. An analysis of the dynamics of prices for the main grain crops in the world was carried out. It was found that the increase in grain prices will have an extremely negative impact on food markets in general, primarily in less developed countries, which will also suffer from food shortages. However, already in the medium-term perspective, by preserving the territory, Ukraine is able to significantly increase its contribution to global agrarian and food security. A number of measures are given to reduce the negative impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war on world food security, due to the rise in grain prices and the emergence of grain shortages.
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