HUMAN CAPITAL IN THE GLOBAL WORLD AND IN UKRAINE: LONG-TERM TRENDS AND THE IMPACT OF COVID-19
Abstract
The purpose of the article is to highlight the main long-term trends in assessing the level of human capital in the global world and in Ukraine, as well as identifying the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on them. The relevance of the study is due to the need to determine the loss of human capital, the role of which, as a growth factor, at the present stage of socio-economic development for countries with different incomes and the world economy is decisive. To implement the tasks set, the following methods were used: analysis of statistical information, expert assessments, results of sociological surveys; regression analysis and construction of econometric models. Based on the analysis of estimates of the level of total wealth of the global world over the long-term period 1995-2018, important trends in the growth of its value, as well as individual components and per capita wealth, are identified. The importance of increasing the share of human capital in the structure of wealth as a key determinant of economic development is emphasized. A comparative analysis of the wealth structure of Ukraine with average values for individual groups and countries draws attention to the saving trend – a low share of human capital in national wealth, which limits the country's growth potential. The constructed regression models confirmed the hypotheses about the presence of a positive impact of human capital on the formation of wealth and the economic dynamics of Ukraine. The negative effects of the impact of COVID-19 on the reduction of human capital in the global world and the deterioration of the welfare of the population in Ukraine are presented. It is emphasized that the scale of spread and the negative consequences of COVID-19 were different in the world in terms of strength and time, since the perception of the global threat, the effectiveness of measures, and the financial capabilities of countries were different. The regression analysis of the dynamics of the gross national product per capita and the Gini index confirmed the existence of a close statistical relationship between these indicators, and therefore a further increase in inequality, including due to the negative effects of COVID-19 and military aggression of the Russian Federation, may continue to negatively put pressure on the well-being of the population, reducing the potential for socio-economic development of Ukraine. An analysis of the risks of COVID-19 and the behavior of the trend of changes in human capital determines the internal opportunities for growth and post-war renewal of Ukraine.
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