MODELING OF ENERGY DEVELOPMENT IN THE CONDITIONS OF POST-WAR RECONSTRUCTION

Abstract

The article is devoted to the topical issue of post-war reconstruction of Ukraine in the direction of energy development. Given the rather difficult current situation in the country, the need to analyze the state of the energy system and the consequences of enemy attacks is determined. It is determined that in 2022 the average daily electricity consumption in Ukraine decreased by an average of 39% compared to 2021. Accordingly, the economic situation in Ukraine and changes in the level of GDP compared to previous years were analyzed. Official data show that the reduction in electricity consumption entailed a drop in gross domestic product by at least 30%. The causal links of the full-scale invasion of the energy sector, which is a critical infrastructure, are established. The experience of post-war reconstruction of European countries, which was due to financial support and orientation to market relations, is investigated. Forecast models are proposed that contain a dynamic nature, forming scenarios for the development of the energy situation in Ukraine during the war and in its absence. To build the models, official data on factors that directly affect electricity consumption and expert forecasts were used. The purpose of the proposed models is to forecast the situation of the energy sector in which Ukraine will be after the war. The analysis of the current situation gives an understanding of the direction in which it is necessary to move to restore and stabilize the critical infrastructure. The recommendations and a set of measures for each of the energy sectors are described, which are aimed at adapting the proposed strategic model, which in the long term will facilitate the implementation of the structure in the post-war recovery. It is recommended to invest in "green" energy, as the country has all the necessary resources. It is necessary to develop a state policy on human capital in the energy sector, including new methods of training and retraining technicians and engineers. It is also recommended to conduct a full audit of state-owned energy companies and change their human resources policy and working conditions.