MODELING OF FOREIGN ECONOMIC INTERACTION OF UKRAINIAN AGRICULTURAL ENTERPRISES

Abstract

The existing structure of foreign economic relations makes the Ukrainian agrarian economy extremely dependent on the current economic and political situation. In this regard, it is important to assess the possibilities of transition to a more stable configuration of foreign economic relations of Ukrainian producers of agricultural products in the context of diversification of the national economy and export structure. A toolkit of methodical approaches to assessing the efficiency of export activity of agricultural goods of Ukraine, which characterize the development of foreign economic agricultural products, forecasting their export potential and increasing the volume of sales of agricultural products abroad, has been developed. A simulated model of foreign economic interaction of Ukrainian agricultural enterprises on the world market is proposed. The concept of the proposed system is based on simulation modeling of the economic interaction of agent-countries and Ukrainian agricultural enterprises, the result of which is the forecast dynamics of foreign trade turnover, which is a component characteristic of the national economy. In the proposed model, agents are released, the first of which are agricultural enterprises of Ukraine, the others are countries that are trading partners of Ukraine. The developed simulation model allows: to form the forecast dynamics of the foreign trade turnover of agricultural enterprises of Ukraine according to various scenarios determined by the foreign economic policy of the partner countries, as well as to assess the balance of the formed extra-economic ties; download raw statistical data on partner countries from a subject-oriented database; conduct multiple scenario calculations with different values of average rates of import duties and import quotas for goods imported from Ukraine; calculate the forecast dynamics of foreign trade turnover of agricultural enterprises of Ukraine and income from imports of countries that are trading partners of Ukraine, depending on the selected scenario; search for suboptimal solutions (import tariff rates and quotas) within the framework of the formulated bi-criteria optimization problem of rational management of the foreign economic agrarian activity of Ukrainian enterprises.