TRACKS OF DEVELOPMENT OF THE MAIN TYPES OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES IN UKRAINE IN THE POST-WAR PERIOD
Abstract
The article is devoted to the results of the study of the consequences of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation for the economy of Ukraine and the determination of the main tasks for its recovery, the main of which is the choice between whether our country will restore its economy of the raw material and agrarian type or start building an economy based on a new technological system, economy of knowledge and technologies. Approaches to solving specific tasks for the reconstruction of war-ravaged land will largely depend on which path Ukraine chooses. The article is revealed the economic situation in which Ukraine found itself before the start of the war with Russia, and examines trends in the development of the world economy during the period of adaptation to pandemic conditions and exit from the crisis, are outlined the main megatrends of the post-pandemic development of the world. The article shows the losses of the Ukrainian economy from those destructions of the infrastructure that were the consequences of military actions, identifies the main factors of production reduction in the main types of economic activity, outlines the main tasks for the recovery of the economy in the post-war period, taking into account those megatrends in the development of the world economy, which were formed in particular as a response to the post-pandemic space. Also presents a scenario assessment of the development trajectories of the main types of economic activity activities in the post-war period to 2030. These are, in particular, such types of economic activity as agriculture, industry, construction and trade. The development of these types of activities has a significant multiplier effect on the scale of production of almost all other types of economic activity. The starting point of these studies was an estimate of the drop in production in the current 2022. State policy measures aimed at ensuring the successful recovery of the economy and the endogenization of Ukraine's economic development are also proposed. Those measures that must be carried out without waiting for the end of hostilities are separately highlighted.
References
The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook. URL: https://www.conference-board.org/topics/global-economic-outlook (дата звернення 13.10.2022)
Геєць В.М., Кораблін С.О. Відновлення та реконструкція повоєнної економіки України : Наукова доповідь / НАН України, ДУ «Ін-т екон. та прогнозув. НАН України». Київ, 2022. 304 с.
Геєць В.М., Близнюк В.В., Никифорук О.І. Актуальні аспекти політики соціальної якості в постконфліктній економіці України. Економіка України, 2022. № 6. С. 3–22.
Скрипниченко М.І., Кузнєцова Л.І., Білоцерківець О.Г. Сценарії макрооцінки повоєнної відбудови економіки України. Економіка і прогнозування. 2022. № 3. С. 48–74.
План відновлення України. URL: https://ua.urc2022.com/plan-vidnovlennya-ukrayini (дата звернення: 15.07.2022)
Загальна сума прямих збитків інфраструктури зросла до $114,5 млрд. URL: https://kse.ua/ua/about-the-school/news/zagalna-suma-pryamih-zbitkiv-infrastrukturi-zrosla-do-114-5-mlrd/?fbclid=IwAR1w2o4E2WQX2R4UMbsy3zcJEAJjrKmm4-K80PsSqVcANUankPF30hH0FYI (дата звернення: 10.10.2022).
Українські міста відновлять США, Туреччина та країни ЄС. URL: https://news.obozrevatel.com/ukr/economics/ukrainski-mista-vidnovlyat-ssha-turechchina-ta-kraini-es-hto-ta-komu-dopomozhe.htm (дата звернення: 13.10.2022)
Future Possibilities Report (2020). United Nationals Organization. URL: http://wdc.org.ua/uk/covid19-transformation-after-pandemic-europe (дата звернення: 13.10.2022)
The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook. Available at: https://www.conference-board.org/topics/global-economic-outlook
Heyets V., Korablin S. (2022) Vidnovleniya ta rekonstrukciya povoenoi economici Ukraini. Naukova dopovid. NAN Ukraini [Renewal of the tactics of reconstruction of the military economy of Ukraine: Scientific report]. Kyiv, 304 p. (in Ukrainian)
Heyets V. Bliznyuk V., Nikiforuk O. (2022) Aktualni aspecti sotsialnoi yakosti v postconfliktniy economitsi Ukraini [Actual aspects of the policy of social quality in the post-conflict economy of Ukraine]. Economika Ukraini, vol. 6, pp. 3–22. (in Ukrainian)
Skrypnychenko M., Kuznietsova L., Bilotserkivet O.H. (2022) Ctsenarni macrootsinki pislyavoienoi vidbudovi economiki Ukraini [Scenarios of a macro assessment of the military reconstruction of the economy of Ukraine]. Ekonomikai i prognozuvanna, vol. 3, pp. 48–74. (in Ukrainian)
Plan vidnovlenniya Ukraini [Ukraine recovery plan]. Available at: https://ua.urc2022.com/plan-vidnovlennya-ukrayini (in Ukrainian)
Zagalna suma priamih zbitkiv infrastrukturi zrosla do $114,5 mlrd [The total amount of direct infrastructure damage increased to $114.5 billion]. Available at: https://kse.ua/ua/about-the-school/news/zagalna-suma-pryamih-zbitkiv-infrastrukturi-zrosla-do-114-5-mlrd/?fbclid=IwAR1w2o4E2WQX2R4UMbsy3zcJEAJjrKmm4-K80PsSqVcANUankPF30hH0FYI (in Ukrainian)
Ukrainski mista vidnovliat SSHA, Turechina ta kraini EC [Ukrainian cities will restore the USA, Turkey and EU countries]. Available at: https://news.obozrevatel.com/ukr/economics/ukrainski-mista-vidnovlyat-ssha-turechchina-ta-kraini-es-hto-ta-komu-dopomozhe.htm (in Ukrainian)
Future Possibilities Report (2020). United Nationals Organization. Available at: http://wdc.org.ua/uk/covid19-transformation-after-pandemic-europe (accessed 10 October 2020)
