STATISTICAL APPROACHES TO ESTIMATING THE VALUE OF A MOTOR TRANSPORT ENTERPRISE

Abstract

The urgency of conducting a comprehensive consideration of the issue of ensuring the profitability of urban passenger road transport, taking into account various factors that affect it. The importance of quality management of the value of the enterprise is established, as data on its value characterize the financial condition of the business entity and form a generalized information and analytical base of performance indicators of financial and economic activity of the motor transport enterprise. The positions of various scholars on methodological approaches to determining the value of the enterprise and information on these indicators of external and internal users are summarized, as in some cases the value of the enterprise is identified with the value of the business. Analysis of the financial condition of the enterprise is considered as the basis for determining its value, because it clearly reveals all the risks and prospects. Since the value of the enterprise is determined by the values of the level of net financial result and value of net assets, in the process of its analysis it is proposed to use statistical methods of time series, which are more universal in terms of predictive models for any predetermined level of confidence. The methodology of time series provides an opportunity to determine the point estimate of the forecast for the following years on the basis of the values of indicators of the level of net financial result and value of net assets for previous years. It is argued that determining the forecast values of the net financial result using analytical methods of equalization of time series allows to avoid many shortcomings of forecasting based on averages (average level of time series and average growth rate). The constructed trend models allowed to determine the forecast values of the value of the motor transport enterprise. A comparison of the values of the company, obtained on the basis of data analysis for five and seven years, revealed the need for drastic action to avoid bankruptcy. It is emphasized that a more accurate assessment of the value of the enterprise can be made on the basis of forecast values of the level of net financial result and the value of net assets obtained by the method of analytical equalization.