СОЦІАЛЬНО-ДЕМОГРАФІЧНА ПОЛІТИКА: СТРАТЕГІЧНІ ІМПЕРАТИВИ ТА РЕСТРИКЦІЇ
Анотація
Статтю присвячено особливостям реалізації соціально-демографічної політики із врахуванням стратегічних імперативів стійкого економічного розвитку й інституційних рестрикцій. Розкрито особливості дії трансмісійного механізму демографічного переходу на процеси економічного відтворення в світлі концепту демографічного дивіденду. Запропоновано концептуальні підходи до оцінювання впливу флуктацій страти працездатного населення у загальній структурі на динаміку реального ВВП на одну особу, заощаджень (відносно обсягів суспільного виробництва) та бідності. Узагальнено риси першого та другого демографічного дивідендів, проілюстровано трансмісійні механізми відповідного ефекту на конкретних стадіях демографічного переходу, завдяки чому стає можливим стійке зростання економічного добробуту. Наголошено на ролі демографічного прогнозування та моделювання, зокрема в контексті старіння населення.
Посилання
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Bloom, D., Canning, D., & Sevilla, J. (2003). The demographic dividend: A new perspective on the economic consequences of population change. Rand Corporation.
Acemoglu, D., & Johnson, S. (2007). Disease and development: the effect of life expectancy on economic growth. Journal of political Economy, 115(6), 925–985.
Acemoglu, D., Gallego, F. A., & Robinson, J. A. (2014). Institutions, human capital, and development. Annual Reviews of Economics, 6(1), 875–912.
Ziesemer, T., & von Gässler, A. (2021). Ageing, human capital and demographic dividends with endogenous growth, labour supply and foreign capital. Portuguese Economic Journal, 20(2), 129–160.
Kozlovskyi, S., Pasichnyi, M., Lavrov, R., Ivaniuta, N., & Nepytaliuk, A. (2020). An Empirical Study of the Effects of Demographic Factors on Economic Growth in Advanced and Developing Countries. Comparative Economic Research. Central and Eastern Europe, 23(3), 45–67.
Khachatrian, V., Nepytaliuk, A., Pasichnyi, M., Nasibova, O., & Tabenska, J. (2023). Demographics’ impact on economic growth in Central Europe and the Baltic states. Economics – Innovative and Economics Research Journal, 11(Special issue 1), 37–54.
Pasichnyi, M., & Nepytaliuk, A. (2021). The Contributions of Demographic Factors to Economic Growth. Problemy Ekorozwoju – Problems of Sustainable Development, 16(1), 219–229.
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Lee, R. (2016). Macroeconomics, aging, and growth. Economics of Population Aging, 1, 59–118.
Lindh, T., & Malmberg, B. (1998). Age structure and inflation – a Wicksellian interpretation of the OECD data. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 36(1), 19–37.
Abrigo, M. R., Racelis, R. H., Salas, J. M., Herrin, A. N., Ortiz, D. A., & Tam, Z. C. (2018). Are we missing out on the demographic dividend? Trends and prospects (No. 2018-43). PIDS Discussion Paper Series.
Allendorf, K. (2020). Another Gendered Demographic Dividend: Adjusting to a Future without Sons. Population and Development Review, 46(3), 471–499.
Cuaresma, J. C., Lutz, W., & Sanderson, W. (2014). Is the demographic dividend an education dividend? Demography, 51(1), 299–315.
Pasichnyi, M. (2017). Empirical study of the fiscal policy impact on economic growth. Problems and Perspectives in Management, 15 (3), 316–322.
Pasichnyi, M., Kaneva, T., Ruban, M., Nepytaliuk, A. (2019). The impact of fiscal decentralization on economic development. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 16(3), 29–39.
Lee, R., & Mason, A. (2006). What is the demographic dividend? Finance and development, 43(3), 16–17.
Bloom, D., Canning, D., & Sevilla, J. (2003). The demographic dividend: A new perspective on the economic consequences of population change. Rand Corporation.
Acemoglu, D., & Johnson, S. (2007). Disease and development: the effect of life expectancy on economic growth. Journal of political Economy, 115(6), 925–985.
Acemoglu, D., Gallego, F. A., & Robinson, J. A. (2014). Institutions, human capital, and development. Annual Reviews of Economics, 6(1), 875–912.
Ziesemer, T., & von Gässler, A. (2021). Ageing, human capital and demographic dividends with endogenous growth, labour supply and foreign capital. Portuguese Economic Journal, 20(2), 129–160.
Kozlovskyi, S., Pasichnyi, M., Lavrov, R., Ivaniuta, N., & Nepytaliuk, A. (2020). An Empirical Study of the Effects of Demographic Factors on Economic Growth in Advanced and Developing Countries. Comparative Economic Research. Central and Eastern Europe, 23(3), 45–67.
Khachatrian, V., Nepytaliuk, A., Pasichnyi, M., Nasibova, O., & Tabenska, J. (2023). Demographics’ impact on economic growth in Central Europe and the Baltic states. Economics – Innovative and Economics Research Journal, 11(Special issue 1), 37–54.
Pasichnyi, M., & Nepytaliuk, A. (2021). The Contributions of Demographic Factors to Economic Growth. Problemy Ekorozwoju – Problems of Sustainable Development, 16(1), 219–229.
Nepytaliuk, A. V. (2019). Determinanty zabezpechennia demohrafichnoi stiikosti [Determinants for the demographic sustainability ensuring]. Zovnishnia torhivlia: ekonomika, finansy, pravo – Foreign trade: economics, finance, law, no 105(4), pp. 44–59. (in Ukrainian)
Kozlovskyi, S. V., Nepytaliuk, A. V. (2020). Demohrafichna skladova stratehii sotsialno-ekonomichnoho rozvytku [Demographic component of the socio-economic development strategy]. Ekonomika i orhanizatsiia upravlinnia, 2(38), 6–19. (in Ukrainian)
McMichael, A. J., Butler, C. D., & Folke, C. (2003). New visions for addressing sustainability. Science, 302(5652), 1919–1920.
Lee, R. (2016). Macroeconomics, aging, and growth. Economics of Population Aging, 1, 59–118.
Lindh, T., & Malmberg, B. (1998). Age structure and inflation – a Wicksellian interpretation of the OECD data. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 36(1), 19–37.
Abrigo, M. R., Racelis, R. H., Salas, J. M., Herrin, A. N., Ortiz, D. A., & Tam, Z. C. (2018). Are we missing out on the demographic dividend? Trends and prospects (No. 2018-43). PIDS Discussion Paper Series.
Allendorf, K. (2020). Another Gendered Demographic Dividend: Adjusting to a Future without Sons. Population and Development Review, 46(3), 471–499.
Cuaresma, J. C., Lutz, W., & Sanderson, W. (2014). Is the demographic dividend an education dividend? Demography, 51(1), 299–315.
Pasichnyi, M. (2017). Empirical study of the fiscal policy impact on economic growth. Problems and Perspectives in Management, 15 (3), 316–322.
Pasichnyi, M., Kaneva, T., Ruban, M., Nepytaliuk, A. (2019). The impact of fiscal decentralization on economic development. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 16(3), 29–39.
Lee, R., & Mason, A. (2006). What is the demographic dividend? Finance and development, 43(3), 16–17.
Bloom, D., Canning, D., & Sevilla, J. (2003). The demographic dividend: A new perspective on the economic consequences of population change. Rand Corporation.
Acemoglu, D., & Johnson, S. (2007). Disease and development: the effect of life expectancy on economic growth. Journal of political Economy, 115(6), 925–985.
Acemoglu, D., Gallego, F. A., & Robinson, J. A. (2014). Institutions, human capital, and development. Annual Reviews of Economics, 6(1), 875–912.
Ziesemer, T., & von Gässler, A. (2021). Ageing, human capital and demographic dividends with endogenous growth, labour supply and foreign capital. Portuguese Economic Journal, 20(2), 129–160.
Kozlovskyi, S., Pasichnyi, M., Lavrov, R., Ivaniuta, N., & Nepytaliuk, A. (2020). An Empirical Study of the Effects of Demographic Factors on Economic Growth in Advanced and Developing Countries. Comparative Economic Research. Central and Eastern Europe, 23(3), 45–67.
Khachatrian, V., Nepytaliuk, A., Pasichnyi, M., Nasibova, O., & Tabenska, J. (2023). Demographics’ impact on economic growth in Central Europe and the Baltic states. Economics – Innovative and Economics Research Journal, 11(Special issue 1), 37–54.
Pasichnyi, M., & Nepytaliuk, A. (2021). The Contributions of Demographic Factors to Economic Growth. Problemy Ekorozwoju – Problems of Sustainable Development, 16(1), 219–229.
Nepytaliuk, A. V. (2019). Determinanty zabezpechennia demohrafichnoi stiikosti [Determinants for the demographic sustainability ensuring]. Zovnishnia torhivlia: ekonomika, finansy, pravo – Foreign trade: economics, finance, law, no 105(4), pp. 44–59. (in Ukrainian)
Kozlovskyi, S. V., Nepytaliuk, A. V. (2020). Demohrafichna skladova stratehii sotsialno-ekonomichnoho rozvytku [Demographic component of the socio-economic development strategy]. Ekonomika i orhanizatsiia upravlinnia, 2(38), 6–19. (in Ukrainian)
McMichael, A. J., Butler, C. D., & Folke, C. (2003). New visions for addressing sustainability. Science, 302(5652), 1919–1920.
Lee, R. (2016). Macroeconomics, aging, and growth. Economics of Population Aging, 1, 59–118.
Lindh, T., & Malmberg, B. (1998). Age structure and inflation – a Wicksellian interpretation of the OECD data. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 36(1), 19–37.
Abrigo, M. R., Racelis, R. H., Salas, J. M., Herrin, A. N., Ortiz, D. A., & Tam, Z. C. (2018). Are we missing out on the demographic dividend? Trends and prospects (No. 2018-43). PIDS Discussion Paper Series.
Allendorf, K. (2020). Another Gendered Demographic Dividend: Adjusting to a Future without Sons. Population and Development Review, 46(3), 471–499.
Cuaresma, J. C., Lutz, W., & Sanderson, W. (2014). Is the demographic dividend an education dividend? Demography, 51(1), 299–315.
Pasichnyi, M. (2017). Empirical study of the fiscal policy impact on economic growth. Problems and Perspectives in Management, 15 (3), 316–322.
Pasichnyi, M., Kaneva, T., Ruban, M., Nepytaliuk, A. (2019). The impact of fiscal decentralization on economic development. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 16(3), 29–39.
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