ФІНАНСОВИЙ БІЗНЕС У ЧАСИ НЕВИЗНАЧЕНОСТІ: ПОВЕДІНКОВІ МЕХАНІЗМИ ТРАНСФОРМАЦІЇ ІНВЕСТИЦІЙНИХ РІШЕНЬ
Анотація
У статті досліджено трансформацію поведінки інвесторів у періоди економічної, геополітичної, регуляторної та технологічної невизначеності. Застосовано поведінково-аналітичну логіку «концепція механізм дії емпіричний прояв наслідки для фінансового бізнесу регуляторні висновки». Обґрунтовано, що кризові рішення інвесторів формуються під впливом страху втрат, ефекту стадності, евристики доступності, якорування, надмірної самовпевненості та FOMO. На прикладах криз 2008, 2020, 2022 і 2025 років показано зміну структури портфелів і логіки інвестиційного вибору. Емпіричну основу підкріплено індикаторами VIX, даними щодо крипторинку та реакцією секторів S&P 500. Запропоновано модель адаптації фінансового бізнесу, яка поєднує зовнішні шоки, психологічні реакції, цифрові інструменти та регуляторні відповіді.
Посилання
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Knight, F.H. (1921), Risk, Uncertainty and Profit, Houghton Mifflin, Boston, USA.
Bloom, N. (2009), “The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks”, Econometrica, vol. 77, no. 3, pp. 623–685. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA6248
Baker, S.R., Bloom, N. and Davis, S.J. (2016), “Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 131, no. 4, pp. 1593–1636. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjw024
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Lo, A.W. (2017), Adaptive Markets: Financial Evolution at the Speed of Thought, Princeton University Press, Princeton, USA.
Akerlof, G.A. and Shiller, R.J. (2009), Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism, Princeton University Press, Princeton, USA.
Taleb, N.N. (2007), The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Random House, New York, USA.
Baur, D.G., Hong, K. and Lee, A.D. (2018), “Bitcoin: Medium of Exchange or Speculative Assets?”, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, vol. 54, pp. 177–189. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2017.12.004
Friede, G., Busch, T. and Bassen, A. (2015), “ESG and financial performance: aggregated evidence from more than 2000 empirical studies”, Journal of Sustainable Finance & Investment, vol. 5, no. 4, pp. 210–233. https://doi.org/10.1080/20430795.2015.1118917
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Izzeldin, M., Muradoğlu, Y.G., Pappas, V., Petropoulou, A. and Sivaprasad, S. (2023), “The impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war on global financial markets”, International Review of Financial Analysis, vol. 87, article 102598. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2023.102598
Aldasoro, I., Frost, J., Gambacorta, L. and Whyte, D. (2021), “Covid-19 and cyber risk in the financial sector”, BIS Bulletin, no. 37, available at: https://www.bis.org/publ/bisbull37.htm (Accessed 03 June 2026).
Zetzsche, D.A., Arner, D.W. and Buckley, R.P. (2020), “Decentralized Finance”, Journal of Financial Regulation, vol. 6, no. 2, pp. 172–203. https://doi.org/10.1093/jfr/fjaa010
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